MEADVILLE — Avoiding a series of debates leading up to Election Day usually doesn’t hurt an incumbent candidate seeking re-election, according to two area political scientists.

Mike Coulter, a professor of political science at Grove City College, said incumbent candidates — especially congressional ones — don’t benefit much from the forums they attend.

“An incumbent will gain little in additional name recognition from a debate, and it will likely not attract new supporters or donors,” said Coulter.

Mike Fisher, a professor of political science at Edinboro University of Pennsylvania, agrees.

“The more you debate, the more the opponent’s campaign is given legitimacy,” he said.

In Pennsylvania’s Third Congressional District race, which includes almost all of Crawford County, incumbent freshman Republican Congressman Mike Kelly of Butler County has agreed to only one debate with his two opponents — Democrat Missa Eaton of Mercer County and Independent Steven Porter of Erie County.

The three will debate on television, but it will be recorded in Erie on Oct. 24 and not aired on Erie television stations until Oct. 25 and 27.

Kelly has turned down invitations to debate in at least two northwest Pennsylvania venues, including one co-sponsored by Allegheny College and The Meadville Tribune that was planned to be held in Meadville. Some local political leaders, and numerous readers of The Tribune who have submitted written comments, have roundly criticized the incumbent’s snub and think it could hurt his run for a second term. A few readers as well as some leading Republicans called his decision wise or unimportant.

Besides the Meadville face-off, Kelly’s campaign also turned down a request for a debate hosted by League of Women Voters in Mercer County.

“He has a very busy campaign and congressional schedule throughout the month of October,” Josh Wilson, Kelly campaign spokesman, said in an e-mail to The Sharon Herald on Thursday to explain the reason to reject the Mercer County event.

Debates are what the challengers — not incumbents — use to try to become known, according to the political scientists.

“Challengers and candidates with little campaign resources have the most to gain from debates, as it can be a chance to be mentioned in local media,” Coulter said.

Fisher said he only sees Kelly doing additional debates if he would be doing badly in polls.

“He’s not afraid of the cameras,” Fisher said of Kelly. “But if he debates (Eaton) and she does a good job, it increases her recognition.”

Both Coulter and Fisher don’t expect holding only one debate will hurt Kelly among voters.

“The academic studies of congressional races would suggest that debates have almost no impact on races, unless one of the candidates makes a major gaffe — and even then that gaffe would have to be used in a negative ad by the opposing candidate,” said Coulter.

“It might annoy some people, but I don’t think it will annoy people enough to change their minds,” said Fisher. “But the debates do allow us to assess candidates well and go beyond ads and 30-second sound bites.”



‘Many people unhappy’

Diane Adsit, chair of the Crawford County Democratic Committee, thinks a lack of debate — especially turning down one in Crawford County — may hurt Kelly.

“Many people in Crawford County are unhappy with the job he’s done and not wanting to be accountable,” Adsit said. “I hope voters in Crawford County see this for the slap in the face that it is.”

Christine Krzysiak, a vice chair of the Crawford County Republican Party, doesn’t know if only one debate will hurt Kelly. Jody Leech, chair of the county’s Republicans was out of town this past week and unavailable for comment.

“I don’t know the reason for him not debating (in Crawford County). I haven’t heard,” Krzysiak said. “I don’t think it’s negative. I’ve not heard anything negative at all.”

Both Fisher and Coulter said most voters won’t be influenced by whether a candidate didn’t participate in a debate.

“If the non-refusing candidate can draw attention to the opposing candidate’s refusal to debate, in an ad campaign it might affect some independent voters,” said Coulter. “For those voters with partisan attachment — which is most voters — whether or not a candidate participates will have little impact.”

“It might turn off some if they have doubts about Kelly,” Fisher said. “But most have their minds made up already I think.”



Keith Gushard can be reached at 724-6370 or by email at kgushard@meadvilletribune.com.