03/05/08 — Despite a taxpayer-funded study that indicates an ethanol production plant in this region will perform so poorly that it’s a bad investment, plans for such a plant are moving forward and the group pushing the plan hopes to begin soliciting investors within the next two months.

A privately-held business, Keystone Ethanol Energy Producers LLC of Greenville in Mercer County, used its own money to hire ethanol consultant Larry Johnson of Cologne., Minn., to review the results of a 2006 study the Crawford County Farm Bureau’s informal ethanol committee initiated by getting a $37,000 taxpayer-funded grant. While that study indicated an ethanol plant wouldn’t work here, KEEP members rejected that finding and hired Johnson in an effort to prove their position.

Although Johnson visited the area in the fall and has since completed his work, KEEP has refused to discuss his findings. This isn’t the first time KEEP members have kept their efforts shrouded in secrecy.

Four of KEEP’s seven members were on the Crawford County Farm Bureau’s informal ethanol committee. The bureau refused to release the 2006 study, which was paid for with a grant it received from the state Department of Community and Economic Development. The Tribune filed requests under the state’s open records laws that eventually led to the study’s release.

The Tribune has no such leverage in seeking Johnson’s work as he wasn’t paid with taxpayer funds.

Last fall, Johnson told the Tribune that a 25 percent return on investment is needed for the ethanol plant to be financially viable. The 2006 study indicated a plant in this region would come nowhere near that level. However, Johnson found the 2006 study was based on corn and ethanol prices that he characterized as exceeding low. Those prices have increased since then.

Although KEEP spokesman Bruce Wolff refused to discuss any of Johnson’s findings, he said the rate of return for the plant could vary significantly depending on the prices of corn and ethanol as well as two byproducts from producing ethanol — dry distillers grains and carbon dioxide.

“We have rates of return ranging from a negative 5 percent to a positive 80 to 90 percent return on investment,” Wolff said. “It’s a risk type of venture.”

KEEP still is gathering information for a business plan for an ethanol plant in Crawford or Mercer counties to take to potential investors, according to Wolff, who said he expects the business plan to be completed within the next two months.

Also, KEEP is looking at building a 25-million-gallon-per-year to 40-million-gallon-per-year-plant — instead of a 50-million-gallon-per-year or 100-million-gallon-per-year plant that were reviewed in the 2006 study.

“That (a smaller plant) ensures we can get a greater percentage of our corn locally — within a 100-mile radius of the plant,” Wolff said.

The 2006 study found Crawford County already uses much of its corn supply to feed livestock and meet other needs. As a result, corn for the ethanol plant will need to be imported.

The county has a deficit of 600,000 bushels and corn for the plant will have to come from north-central Ohio, western Ohio and eastern Indiana, the study found.

“Procurement of corn is a major consideration,” said Wolff. “We have written statements from corn marketers that corn supply would be available.”

The 2006 study done by BBI International of Colorado looked at nine sites in Crawford and surrounding counties for a 50-million-gallon-year-plant and a 100-million-gallon-per-year plant.

However, none of the sites or sizes had a 25 percent average annual pre-tax return on investment — a benchmark BBI sets for a successful project. The lowest average annual pre-tax return on investment was 7.7 percent, and the highest was 14.3 percent.

According to BBI, proposed projects with less than 20 percent are “typically not worth pursuing”; 20 to 24 percent is a “less than average project — needs improvement”; 25 to 29 percent is “a good project — should be able to compete”; and 30 and higher is “an excellent project.”



What is KEEP?

Keystone Ethanol Energy Producers LLC, or KEEP, a privately-held company, was formed in August 2007 by Bruce Wolff of Greenville, George Greig of Linesville, C. Sherman Allen of Conneaut Lake, Scott Preston of Centerville, Drew Pierce of West Middlesex, Richard M. Struthers of Mercer and Charles Sump of Greenville.



Did you know?

Ethanol, or ethyl alcohol, is made from corn or other grains and is blended into automotive gasoline to help petroleum refiners meet more stringent air quality standards.